[Peace] News notes for the AWARE meeting 2008-01-20: faction fights

[C. G. Estabrook]

[AWAREists-- Sorry I wasn't there to deliver these last night, but I was 
investigating a faction fight amongst uniformed forces (the professional 
football playoffs...) --CGE]


SUNDAY 20 JANUARY 2008. ONE YEAR FROM TODAY a new chief magistrate of
the United States of America is scheduled to be inaugurated.  I think
however it would be a mistake to think either (a) the Bush
administration is over, or (b) the new administration will follow
substantially different policies, absent serious public pressure  --
which of course it is the business of the media and the political system
to prevent.

[1] FEAR AND LOATHING OF THE ECONOMY have so possessed the authorities
in the central bank and the treasury that they've sent out the president
and the chairman of the Federal Reserve to say that nothing's wrong, but 
they're going to fix it: interest rate cuts and a $150B “stimulus 
package” (which I thought was what I keep getting spam about).
	The economic news is in fact quite bad, and it's suggested that the 
authorities are aware of worse to come.  The Dow-Jones industrial
average is down 2,000 points from its October high; wholesale inflation
has taken the worst jump in 26 years; and the Financial Times reports
that a rise in import prices spurs fears of 1970s-style stagflation
(prices go up, jobs go down).
	There will probably be a decline in buying and selling in 2008 and a 
concomitant rise in unemployment (“recession”).  Most Americans will 
find their economic circumstances tightening further, while the few who 
control wealth and power will do very well.  E.g., Alan Greenspan, the 
Ayn Rand devotee who as chairman of the Federal Reserve shaped the
policies that gave us the now-burst housing bubble, has gone to work for
a hedge fund manager, John Paulson, who personally made billions [sic]
this year by shorting the subprime crisis – which Greenspan's policies
caused.  Alan, who really wanted to be a jazz musician when he was
young, goes to his reward...

[2] THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE LAST YEAR OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION
apparently is being shaped by a bitter fight within the only effective
branch of the USG, the executive, between the war party (centered in the
OVP and the Rumsfeld civilians in the Pentagon) and the foreign policy
establishment (the “permanent government,” centered in the “intelligence
community,” the Department of State, and the uniformed military – itself
riven by faction).  Both are of course devoted to the constant goal of
US foreign policy – control of ME energy resources as a strangle-hold on
America's economic rivals – but they differ in tactics (notably
regarding attacking Iran).  The latter seems recently to have gone into
the ascendant (perhaps because of a shift by Bush and the White House
from Cheney to Rice/Gates).  The change was announced by the recent
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which – contrary to the war
party's frenzied claims – said that Iran was not much of a threat.
	On his ME trip, Bush seemed to distance himself from the report – by 
saying that it was crafted by “independent” spy agencies (independent 
from the war party, he means) who “come to conclusions separate from 
what I may or may not want” [sic].  But the White House rushed forward 
Thursday to contradict him, according to Agence-France Presse: White 
House spokesman Tony Fratto told reporters, “The president stands by the 
full scope of the findings in that they were put together by incredibly 
dedicated people that did their best work and put their best views out”!
	Meanwhile, the corresponding factions in the military are openly
debating troop cuts in Iraq: US Iraq commander Petraeus says that he
will decide (as Bush indicated), and the Joint Chiefs of Staff reply
that no, he won't: they will.  And the chairman of the JCS casually
outrages the war party by saying that the US concentration camp at
Guantanamo Bay should be closed!

[3] THE WAR CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE DOESN'T.  The U.S.
conducted more than five times as many airstrikes in Iraq in 2007 as it
did in 2006.  And the “war on terror” moves East to the “good war,”
avidly promoted by the Democrats.  (See John Pilger's piece on the war
in Afghanistan, “The 'Good War' is a Bad War.”)  SOD Gates faults NATO
forces in southern Afghanistan for not trying hard enough.  Lord Ashdown
(“Paddy” from his schoolboy NIreland accent), the UN proconsul in Bosnia 
(and former special forces officer and leader of the Liberal Democrat 
party) will become the United Nations' envoy to Afghanistan, “expected 
to achieve nothing less than to save the faltering Western mission in
Afghanistan,” says the British press.
	Admiral William Fallon, the commander of CENTCOM [the US military 
district of the Middle East] says that Pakistan OKs a bigger US role 
after “negotiations” with Musharraf who had previously vigorously
rejected such a suggestion.  (Fallon, technically Petraeus' superior,
seems not to have denied the story, put about by Pentagon sources, that
at their first meeting in Baghdad in March, Fallon told Petraeus that he
considered him to be "an ass-kissing little chickenshit" and added, "I
hate people like that.")

[4] DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MIKE MCCONNELL is profiled in the
current New Yorker.  The article should perhaps be read as an update to
Tim Weiner's 2007 book, *Legacy of Ashes: the History of the CIA*.
Weiner is a NYT reporter and no lefty, but he is a severe critic of the
US “intelligence community” from WWII on, for what he sees as stupidity
and incompetence. But he describes murder and criminality with a curious
acceptance that makes sense only under the supposition that, as Noam
Chomsky recently titled an article worth reading, “We [i.e., the US] own
the world.”
	McConnell, a retired admiral who was Colin Powell’s intelligence
officer before and during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and had directed
the National Security Agency [electronic spying] from 1992 to 1996, was
working for a defense contractor [“and finally making real money”] when
he was approached about the D.N.I. position.  He wants "reforms" to the
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) that will make the current
debate “a walk in the park.”  It was McConnell’s decision to declassify
the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program,
after he had initially said that it would remain classified.

[5] MAKE FRIENDS FOR YOURSELF WITH THE MAMMON OF INIQUITY.  Stephen
Cambone -- Igor to Rumsfeld's Dr. Frankenstein -- the Pentagon spychief
and head of special operations (murder and torture, free even of the
control supposedly exercised over the CIA) while Rumsfeld was SOD,
resigned when Rumsfeld did.  In 2006 Germany decided, within the legal
framework of universal jurisdiction, to prosecute Cambone for the Abu
Ghraib torture. (Nothing came of it.)
	Now Cambone has been hired by a “defense contractor” created by the 
British Ministry of Defense.  Two months later the company received a 
multi-million dollar contract for unspecified “security services” from a 
Pentagon office that claims to monitor terrorist threats to U.S.
military bases in North America -- and was once reprimanded by the US
Congress for spying on antiwar activists -- the “Counter-Intelligence
Field Activity” office.  Cambone created the office while he was in the 
Pentagon...

[6] WILL IT SURPRISE YOU TO HEAR THE THE DEMOCRATS ARE NOT REALLY
ANTI-WAR? House Democrats rolled over again this week and passed the
defense bill that include exemption of Iraq from lawsuits dating back to
Saddam Hussein, as the administration demanded.
	A coalition of fake anti-war groups – Democratic party fronts like 
MoveOn, Americans Against Escalation in Iraq et al. -- admitted this 
week that they're not really going to oppose the war in the Congress. 
("Anti-war groups retreat on funding fight," read the headline.) They'll 
simply try to use the war for the electoral advantage  of the Democratic 
party against Republicans by questioning
the administration's arrangements with the Maliki government.

[7] THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES are a contemptuous parody of democracy,
designed to forestall policies desired by the majority, such as an end
to the war and universal health care.  But they will labor for another
ten months to give us a run-off between two pro-war, pro-corporate
candidates (so that it won't matter to our rulers which you pick).
	If it's McCain against Clinton, we'll choose between an authentic war 
criminal and the wife of one, but the campaign and the media 
successfully cover that over: in NH, the 34% of Republican primary
voters who said they disapproved of the war voted overwhelmingly for
McCain, a rabid advocate of the war, who's considering warmongering
Democrat Joe Lieberman as a running mate!
	A new AP-Ipsos national poll reported last week shows that the war and 
the economy tie as the top issues in the public's minds.  Robert
Weissman at counterpunch.org reports polls that show that the "public
holds Big Business in shockingly low regard."  The job of he campaign is
to erase these views.
	Since real issues can't be discussed, this week Clinton used race 
against Obama (it had apparently been effective in NH); Obama praised 
Reagan for dealing with the "excesses of the '60s and '70s" (from 
Obama's book it's clear that he meant the anti-war movement); and the 
surprisingly strong vote for Ron Paul in Nevada -- because of his
uncompromising anti-war position and worries about the economy -- goes
unmentioned in the media.  And while all the other GOP candidates were
ready to attack Iran after the (faked) Straits of Hormuz incident, Ron
Paul alone expressed skepticism about it and and warned against a rush
to war.

[8] IN LATIN AMERICA, Guatemala's first leftist president since the US
overthrew an elected government 50 years ago (see Weiner's book for an
account of the stupid and criminal action by the CIA), Alvaro Colom,
took office Monday with a pledge to help the poor; Brazil’s president
offered Cuba a $1-billion line of credit; and the US foreign policy
establishment, including the media, appears to think that Venezuela is
off-base for supporting a negotiated solution to the conflict in
Colombia – which is the result of US support for a murderous regime there.

[9] THE CHIEF CLIENT AT WORK.  Israel Defense Forces troops on Tuesday
killed at least 19 Palestinians, including three civilians, in ground
and air attacks on the Gaza Strip.  In Israel and the Occupied
Territories, Israel has ordered the closure of all crossings into the
Gaza Strip. The border had already been heavily restricted, but now all
goods have been blocked, including humanitarian supplies from the UN.
This collective punishment was justified by the Israeli government
spokesman who said, “It’s unacceptable that people in Sderot are living
in fear every day and people in the Gaza Strip are living life as usual.”
	Israel needs to promote the war to resist US pressure for a settlement. 
The Israeli paper Ha'aretz reported that – after Bush's visit – a 
“senior American diplomat” (Rice?) made it clear to the Israeli 
government that the USG disapproves of all building in East Jerusalem 
and the West Bank -- including in the large settlement blocs.

[10] FINAL HOPEFUL NOTE (FOR LINDA).  New NYT columnist, the neocon
William Kristol (once foreign policy advisor to Dan Quayle) seems to get
it right: "that National Intelligence Estimate ... was, I think, an
attempt by the intelligence agencies to prevent the Bush administration
from sort of seriously considering taking action" (viz., bombing Iran -- 
but they still might).
	The Regency wit (and a good bit more), Rev. Sydney Smith, when walking 
through an Edinburgh alleyway, saw two women shouting abuse at one 
another across the alley from their tenement windows. "They'll never
agree," he said. "They're arguing from different premises."  (And Flann
O’Brien improved on the line in At Swim Two Birds: "The conclusion of
your syllogism, I said lightly, is fallacious, being based upon licensed
premises.")

--Carl Estabrook <www.newsfromneptune.com>

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