[Peace] AOTA reveals Oct. Surprise (OK, in Nov.)

[C. G. Estabrook]

"AWARE on the Air" -- seen tonight at 10pm on cable channel 6 -- will consist of 
just Linda and me (and Obama makes three), but it will reveal what this year's 
October Surprise was (and why it didn't work) -- by letting the Fat Cats out of 
the bag (Bush himself said that Wall Street was in the bag, and he should know.)

     "In American political jargon, an October surprise is a news event with the 
potential to influence the outcome of an election, particularly one for the 
presidency. The reference to the month of October is due to the fact that the 
first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is the date for national 
elections (as well as many state and local elections), and therefore events that 
take place in late October have greater potential to influence the decisions of 
prospective voters.

     "The term came into use shortly after the 1972 presidential election 
between Republican incumbent Richard Nixon and Democrat George McGovern, when 
the United States was in the fourth year of negotiations to end the very long 
and domestically divisive Vietnam War. Twelve days before the election day of 
November 7, on October 26, 1972, the United States' chief negotiator, the 
presidential National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger, appeared at a press 
conference held at the White House and announced, 'We believe that peace is at 
hand.' Nixon, despite having vowed to end the unpopular war during his 
presidential election campaign four years earlier, had failed to either cease 
hostilities or gradually bring about an end to the war. Nixon was nevertheless 
already widely considered to be assured of an easy reelection victory against 
McGovern, but Kissinger's 'peace is at hand' declaration may have increased 
Nixon's already high standing with the electorate. In the event, Nixon outpolled 
McGovern in every state except Massachusetts and achieved a 20 point lead in the 
nationwide popular vote. The war continued until 1975.

     "Since that election, the term 'October surprise' has been used 
preemptively during campaign season by partisans of one side to discredit 
late-campaign news by the other side." [Wikipedia]

--Yr. obdt. servt.