[Peace-discuss] Poll

[Morton K. Brussel]

FYI: From the Mosaic website.


Middle East Opinion: Iran Fears Aren't Hitting the Arab Street

PETER KIERNAN | 01 MAR 2007
WORLD POLITICS WATCH EXCLUSIVE
While the Bush administration's efforts to contain Iran have found  
some resonance with the region's Sunni Arab political establishment,  
a recent survey conducted in six Middle Eastern states reveals that  
the strategy to galvanize an anti-Iranian coalition has not made an  
impact on the climate of opinion formed in the Arab street.

Pro-Western Sunni Arab regimes, especially Saudi Arabia, have raised  
concerns about an Iranian arc of influence stretching through Iraq  
and Syria to southern Lebanon, a development that, ironically, has  
been partially aided by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. But the July- 
August 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah opened up cleavages in  
opinion between the political leadership of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and  
Jordan and public sentiment in those countries, which was generally  
sympathetic to Hezbollah.

These cleavages have been confirmed by a recent survey of Middle East  
opinion undertaken by the University of Maryland and Zogby  
International, which sought views on regional and international  
issues among 3,850 respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco,  
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Apart from Lebanon,  
the countries included in the survey are overwhelmingly Sunni Arab.

Current discourse about the Middle East in the Western world is  
increasingly focused on the implications of rising Sunni-Shiite  
sectarianism. No doubt the ripple effect of Iraq's sectarian conflict  
is being felt across the Middle East, with potentially serious  
consequences for the region's stability. Yet there remains a strong  
current of opinion across the Arab world that is characterized by  
hostility toward U.S. policies in the Middle East, which overwhelms  
concerns about rising Shiite influence, the results of the University  
of Maryland/Zogby International 2006 Annual Arab Public Opinion  
Survey show. The survey also shows that the publics in these  
countries do not see Iran as a major threat to the region.

When asked to identify two countries that pose the biggest threat to  
them, 85 percent of respondents said Israel and 72 percent said the  
United States. In contrast, only 11 percent identified Iran.  
Furthermore, a majority of respondents were supportive of Iran's  
nuclear program, even though more than half also believe that Iran  
has ambitions to develop nuclear weapons. According to the survey, 61  
percent believe that Iran has a right to a nuclear program, with only  
24 percent agreeing that Tehran should be pressured to stop it.

Interestingly, two-thirds of those surveyed in the UAE and just over  
half in Saudi Arabia agree that Iran has a right to a nuclear  
program, despite the issue's sensitivity among Gulf Arab monarchies


While broadly approving of Iran's nuclear program, just over half --  
51 percent -- of those surveyed believe Iran has ambitions to achieve  
weapons capability, with only 27 percent believing that Iran is  
intent on using its program for civilian purposes.

Of the world leaders admired most by respondents, Hezbollah's leader,  
Hassan Nasrallah, was first, and Iranian President Mahmoud  
Ahmadinejad came in third, despite the fact both are Shia Muslims and  
the latter is not Arab. French President Jacques Chirac and  
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez came in second and fourth respectively.

Conversely, U.S. President George W. Bush, former and current Israeli  
Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, and U.K. Prime Minister  
Tony Blair were identified as the four most disliked world leaders.  
Respondents also view Hezbollah more favorably since the July-August  
2006 war against Israel. More than two-thirds -- or 68 percent -- of  
those surveyed said they had a more positive attitude toward  
Hezbollah after last year's war; including 58 percent and 50 percent  
respectively in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

As much as the dire situation in Iraq, and to a lesser extent the  
political standoff in Lebanon, have opened up fissures between Arab  
Sunnis and Shias across the region, the University of Maryland/Zogby  
International poll shows that fundamental attitudes towards the role  
of the United States in the region are overwhelmingly negative.  
Furthermore, Sunni Arab regimes' fears of an Iranian ascendancy are  
not shared by those they rule.

"The public of the Arab world is not looking at the important issues  
through the Sunni-Shiite divide," Shibley Telhami, a scholar at the  
Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy who  
conducted the poll, told Inter Press Service. "They see them rather  
through the lens of Israeli-Palestinian issues and anger with U.S.  
policy. Most Sunni Arabs take the side of the Shiites on the  
important issues."

Indeed the Bush administration has a job ahead of it to win over  
hearts and minds in the region. Nearly 80 percent of those surveyed  
stated they had unfavorable attitudes -- 57 very unfavorable and 21  
percent unfavorable -- towards the United States. More than two- 
thirds of those surveyed, or 70 percent, said their attitudes towards  
America were based on U.S. policy, while only 11 percent said they  
was based on American values.

Despite the fact that Middle East democracy promotion forms the core  
of the Bush administration's rhetoric, 65 percent of those surveyed  
said they did not believe democracy is a real U.S. objective in the  
region. In fact when asked what they considered to be motivating U.S.  
policy in the Middle East, "controlling oil" (83 percent),  
"protecting Israel" (75 percent), "weakening the Muslim world" (69  
percent), and "desire to dominate the region" (68 percent) were  
identified as extremely important factors.

When asked what steps the United States could take to improve its  
regional standing, 62 percent identified brokering an Israeli- 
Palestinian peace deal based on 1967 borders. A significant minority  
of respondents identified withdrawal from Iraq (33 percent), and  
withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Arabian Peninsula (22 percent) as  
well. More than half (52 percent) ranked U.S. policy on the Arab- 
Israeli conflict as "extremely important."

When asked to identify their biggest concern about the consequences  
of the Iraq War, just under half (49 percent) feared that Iraq may be  
divided, 42 percent feared Iraq remaining a destabilizing factor for  
the region, while 42 percent cited a continued U.S. dominance of the  
country as their biggest concern. Only 15 percent highlighted Iran  
becoming a more powerful state as a major concern.

Prior to the invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration expected that  
cultivating a Shiite-led pro-Western democracy in Baghdad would  
weaken Iran's theocratic republic and erode Hezbollah's influence. A  
new and powerful Iraqi ally would also enable the United States to  
ease its strategic dependence on Saudi Arabia, an ally which became  
less trusted after 9/11, the administration's thinking went.

But Iran has been able to exercise influence in Iraq and Iraq's  
Shiites have cooperated with the United States on their own terms,  
dashing hopes of politically overhauling the Middle East through  
empowering Shiites. Last year's Israel-Hezbollah war compelled the  
Bush administration to reverse this position and return to seeking an  
alliance with pro-Western Sunni regimes in an effort to contain Iran.  
While this latest strategy brings the Bush administration closer to  
the political leadership of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, the  
Sunni Arab populace in these countries does not see things the same  
way as their leaders.

In fact the Maryland/Zogby poll reveals that skepticism of the United  
States' role in the region, resentment at lack of progress on the  
Israeli-Palestinian front, and affinity for regional figures who are  
seen to be standing up to America and/or Israel are still widespread.  
And despite the sectarian conflict in Iraq and simmering tensions in  
Lebanon, Iran is not seen as the bogeyman of the region. Perhaps the  
Islamic Republic is more popular in the broader Middle East than it  
is within its own borders.

Peter Kiernan, based in Washington, D.C., writes on U.S. Middle East  
policy.
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