[Peace-discuss] Iran

[Barbara kessel]

Secret US Air Force Team to Perfect Plan for Iran Strike
    By Sarah Baxter
    The Sunday Times UK

    Sunday 23 September 2007

    Washington - The United States Air Force has set up a highly
confidential strategic planning group tasked with "fighting the next
war" as tensions rise with Iran.

    Project Checkmate, a successor to the group that planned the 1991
Gulf War's air campaign, was quietly reestablished at the Pentagon in
June.

    It reports directly to General Michael Moseley, the US Air Force
chief, and consists of 20-30 top air force officers and defence and
cyberspace experts with ready access to the White House, the CIA and
other intelligence agencies.

    Detailed contingency planning for a possible attack on Iran has
been carried out for more than two years by Centcom (US central
command), according to defence sources.

    Checkmate's job is to add a dash of brilliance to Air Force
thinking by countering the military's tendency to "fight the last war"
and by providing innovative strategies for warfighting and assessing
future needs for air, space and cyberwarfare.

    It is led by Brigadier-General Lawrence "Stutz" Stutzriem, who is
considered one of the brightest air force generals. He is assisted by
Dr Lani Kass, a former Israeli military officer and expert on
cyberwarfare.

    The failure of United Nations sanctions to curtail Iran's nuclear
ambitions, which Tehran claims are peaceful, is giving rise to an
intense debate about the likelihood of military strikes.

    Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, said last week that
it was "necessary to prepare for the worst ... and the worst is war."
He later qualified his remarks, saying he wanted to avoid that
outcome.

    France has joined America in pushing for a tough third sanctions
resolution against Iran at the UN security council but is meeting
strong resistance from China and Russia. Britain has been doing its
best to bridge the gap, but it is increasingly likely that new
sanctions will be implemented by a US-led "coalition of the willing."

    Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who arrives in New York for
the United Nations general assembly today, has been forced to abandon
plans to visit ground zero, where the World Trade Center stood until
the September 11 attacks of 2001. Politicians from President George W
Bush to Senator Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner in the
2008 race for the White House, were outraged by the prospect of a
visit to New York's most venerated site by a "state sponsor" of
terrorism.

    Bush still hopes to isolate Iran diplomatically, but believes the
regime is moving steadily closer to obtaining nuclear weapons while
the security council bickers.

    The US president faces strong opposition to military action,
however, within his own joint chiefs of staff. "None of them think it
is a good idea, but they will do it if they are told to," said a
senior defence source.

    General John Abizaid, the former Centcom commander, said last
week: "Every effort should be made to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear
weapons, but failing that, the world could live with a nuclear-armed
Iran."

    Critics fear Abizaid has lost sight of Iran's potential to arm
militant groups such as Hezbollah with nuclear weapons. "You can deter
Iran, but there is no strategy against nuclear terrorism," said the
retired air force Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney of the Iran
policy committee.

    "There is no question that we can take out Iran. The problem is
the follow-on, the velvet revolution that needs to be created so the
Iranian people know it's not aimed at them, but at the Iranian
regime."

    Checkmate's freethinking mission is "to provide planning inputs to
warfighters that are strategically, operationally and tactically
sound, logistically supportable and politically feasible". Its remit
is not specific to one country, according to defence sources, but its
forward planning is thought relevant to any future air war against
Iranian nuclear and military sites. It is also looking at possible
threats from China and North Korea.

    Checkmate was formed in the 1970s to counter Soviet threats but
fell into disuse in the 1980s. It was revived under Colonel John
Warden and was responsible for drawing up plans for the crushing air
blitz against Saddam Hussein at the opening of the first Gulf war.

    Warden told The Sunday Times: "When Saddam invaded Kuwait, we had
access to unlimited numbers of people with expertise, including all
the intelligence agencies, and were able to be significantly more
agile than Centcom."

    He believes that Checkmate's role is to develop the necessary
expertise so that "if somebody says Iran, it says: 'here is what you
need to think about'. Here are the objectives, here are the risks,
here is what it will cost, here are the numbers of planes we will
lose, here is how the war is going to end and here is what the peace
will look like."

    Warden added: "The Centcoms of this world are executional - they
don't have the staff, the expertise or the responsibility to do the
thinking that is needed before a country makes the decision to go to
war. War planning is not just about bombs, airplanes and sailing
boats."

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