[Peace-discuss] UCS on Chernobyl, Fukushima

[Morton K. Brussel]

This report is a snow job, and is not confirmed by other world authorities on the Chernobyl accident.
Right up front UCS states:

The international expert group predicts that among the 600 000 persons receiving more significant exposures (liquidators working in 1986-87, evacuees, and residents of the most ‘contaminated’ areas), the possible increase in cancer mortality due to this radiation exposure might be up to a few per cent. This might eventually represent up to four thousand fatal cancers in addition to the approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to be expected due to all other causes in this population. Among the 5 million persons residing in other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are much lower and any projected increases are more speculative, but are expected to make a difference of less than one per cent in cancer mortality.

Note the words "up to" on the third and fourth lines, and "of less than in the final sentence, meaning the result might well be zero! Pretty sneaky  to use this for the their conclusions. UCS has led a campaign against nuclear power for some time. 

Aside from that, one can consult a comprehensive review from the Chernobyl Forum, 2003, a large collaboration from world health authorities, which states:

Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed at
 
a young age, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in the incidence of solid cancers
 
or leukaemia due to radiation in the most affected populations. There was, however,
 
an increase in psychological problems among the affected population, compounded
 
economic depression that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union.
 
It is impossible to assess reliably, with any precision, numbers of fatal cancers caused
 
by radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident — or indeed the impact of the
 
stress and anxiety induced by the accident and the response to it. Small differences in
 
the assumptions concerning radiation risks can lead to large differences in the predicted
 
health consequences, which are therefore highly uncertain. …


Quoting another report from the World Health Organization (2006): 

Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.

Definitive conclusions, therefore are hard to come by, so quoting cancer related deaths in the multiple thousands and above, as UCS does, is irresponsible. One might furthermore note that the estimates on which most of these reports are based use the LNT model, which is unproven for low radiation doses. 

--mkb


On Apr 7, 2011, at 2:45 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:

> Two noteworthy articles from the Union of Concerned Scientists, one on
> careful calculation of excess cancer deaths from Chernobyl, the other on
> internal documents obtained from NRC via FOIA showing concerns about
> station blackout prior to Fukushima catastrophe:
> 
>    http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Peace-discuss mailing list
> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
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