[Peace-discuss] UCS on Chernobyl, Fukushima

[C. G. Estabrook]

"Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those 
exposed at a young age..."!

Obviously there's no reason to consider them.


On 4/7/11 11:22 PM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
> This report is a snow job, and is not confirmed by other world authorities on 
> the Chernobyl accident.
> Right up front UCS states:
>
> /The international expert group predicts that among the 600 000 persons 
> receiving more significant exposures (liquidators working in 1986-87, 
> evacuees, and residents of the most ‘contaminated’ areas), the possible 
> increase in cancer mortality due to this radiation exposure might be *up to *a 
> few per cent. This might eventually represent *up to* four thousand fatal 
> cancers in addition to the approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to be expected 
> due to all other causes in this population. Among the 5 million persons 
> residing in other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are much lower and any 
> projected increases are more speculative, but are expected to make a 
> difference *of less than* one per cent in cancer mortality./
> /
> /
> Note the words/"up to" on the third and fourth lines, and "of less than in the 
> final sentence, meaning the result might well be zero! Pretty sneaky  to use 
> this for the their conclusions. UCS has led a campaign against nuclear power 
> for some time. /
> /
> /
> /Aside from that, one can consult a comprehensive review from the Chernobyl 
> Forum, 2003, a large collaboration from world health authorities, which states:/
> /
> /
> /
> /Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those 
> exposed at /
> //
> /a young age, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in the incidence of 
> solid cancers /
> //
> /or leukaemia due to radiation in the most affected populations. There was, 
> however, /
> //
> /an increase in psychological problems among the affected population, compounded /
> //
> /economic depression that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union./
> //
> /It is impossible to assess reliably, with any precision, numbers of fatal 
> cancers caused /
> //
> /by radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident — or indeed the impact of 
> the /
> //
> /stress and anxiety induced by the accident and the response to it. Small 
> differences in /
> //
> /the assumptions concerning radiation risks can lead to large differences in 
> the predicted/
> //
> /health consequences, which are therefore highly uncertain. …//
> //
> //
> /
> /
> Quoting another report from the World Health Organization (2006):
>
> /Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, 
> *there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in 
> cancer risk.* This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no 
> increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations 
> exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer 
> is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is 
> expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a 
> risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of 
> radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of 
> individuals exposed./
> /
> /
> Definitive conclusions, therefore are hard to come by, so quoting cancer 
> related deaths in the multiple thousands and above, as UCS does, is 
> irresponsible/. /One might furthermore note that the estimates on which most 
> of these reports are based use the LNT model, which is unproven for low 
> radiation doses.
> /
> /
> /--mkb/
> /
> /
>
> On Apr 7, 2011, at 2:45 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>
>> Two noteworthy articles from the Union of Concerned Scientists, one on
>> careful calculation of excess cancer deaths from Chernobyl, the other on
>> internal documents obtained from NRC via FOIA showing concerns about
>> station blackout prior to Fukushima catastrophe:
>>
>> http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear
>>
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